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We’re all movie fans here. Oscar night is fun and we look forward to it every year. But do you know what makes fun things even more fun? Betting on those fun things and making some money. That’s why we’re here today.
Of course, when it comes to gambling nothing is a sure thing. Think you have a line on a “hot tip?” Think again. You’re sure you know something the oddsmakers don’t? Wrong. But there are still ways to at least lower the degree risk. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where I come in.
I’ve looked back at the last 30 years of Academy Awards to see what kind of trends appear, what kind of corresponding nominations and wins we can look at to guide our betting. Make the most informed (and responsible!) bets we can, have a little fun, and hopefully win a little money while we’re at it.
First, a quick once-over on how the betting works, for those of you who may be newcomers. If you don’t need this primer, clickhereto go straight to the categories.
The odds listed are based on values of $100. A positive number (+150) means the betting pick is less likely to win, making the payout in your favor. In this example, a bet of $100 would net a profit of $150.
A negative number (-150) means that selection is more likely to win, thus the payout is not in your favor. Here, you would need to bet $150 in order to profit $100.
The closer the number is to 0, the safer the bet is; low risk, but low reward. The farther away it gets, the worse the bet is. You either put money on a huge favorite, therefore earning minimal return, or risk money on too long of a long shot.
The key is to find the value picks. Betting on all the favorites may get you lots of wins, but the profits will be minimal. You need to find categories where the favorite is a bit more vulnerable, or where there is lots of support for the an underdog win. Last year, for example, bets onGreen Bookfor Best Picture at +360 andBlack Pantherfor Original Score at +250 helped secure me a nice little profit on the evening. Once again, it’s all about finding the right value. Unfortunately, this year, many of the favorites are big favorites. It won’t be worth your time to back many of them (though there are a few that offer good value).
All odds were taken fromBovadaand were current as of Tuesday, February 4th at 2:00 PM CT. Odds may vary based on what site you use, and are subject to change without notice.
The Oscars can be – and often prove to be – wildly unpredictable. This is meant as a guide to help you make a few bets, hopefully adding a little extra fun to Oscar night.
No bet is a sure thing, especially here.Please bet responsibly.
We’re going to approach this logically. I’ll go over some of the key nominations and wins common among past Oscar winners, and touch on how this year’s nominees match up. Other relevant information will be discussed as necessary. Again, all I’m trying to do is give you as much information as possible, so you can make educated bets.
One note regarding the BAFTAs (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) . The numbers here can get a little goofy. Some movies released later in the year in the States get pushed back to the following year’s BAFTAs. For example,Dances with Wolvesreceived a BAFTA Best Picture nomination the yearafterit won the Academy Award for Best Picture. These are counted as a “miss,” if you will, in the nomination/win stats. In order to count, the BAFTA and Academy Award nomination/win must occur in the same award cycle.
The years used were film years 1989-2018, unless otherwise noted (some awards have not been active that long). If a number used is lower than 30, that is how long that particular award/award ceremony has been active, or will be otherwise explained.
Alright my friends, let’s go secure that bag!
Betting picks marked with an asterisk (*) indicates bets I have made myself.Note that I rarely like to bet favorites myself. You may feel otherwise.
Best Picture
Okay, lots of info here, and Best Picture will be the most crowded in that sense. But to break it down, a Best Picture winner typically has widespread support across the board. It will have nominations from multiple guilds. The more nominations a film has, the better its chances should be at winning Best Picture, especially if those nominations are spread throughout a variety of both above and below the line categories.
If there’s a category to have more exposure, it’s Best Picture. The preferential voting process widens the race, improving the value of some of the underdogs. Take a look at the video below if you’re unfamiliar with how that process works.
Best Picture has become a two horse race between 1917 andParasite, withHollywoodlagging behind in third position;Hollywoodshould fair well with the preferential ballot.Jojo Rabbitis still hanging around, picking up various pre-Oscar awards.Jokerremains widely loved and respected. It will be a big surprise if any movie outside of1917, Parasite, orHollywoodwins, but the preferential system allows for the possibility of an upset.
In regards toParasite, keep in mind that Oscar voting didn’t open until January 30th. In the lead up to that, everyone saw how belovedParasite,Bong, the cast, everyone and everything related to that movie is. Could that have an effect on some of the voters?1917remains the front-runner, but there is definite momentum behindParasite. There’s a certain buzz, an energy, surrounding it that you just don’t see every year.
At its current odds,1917is right on the border being an okay bet. I’m not taking any action on it, but I can’t fault anyone who does.
The bet (recommended gambling action):1917,Parasite*,Hollywood*,Joker,Jojo Rabbit*In the spirit of transparency, I also placed a very small bet onLittle Women. It’s a losing bet, but I usually like to find one or two huge long shots to throw a couple bucks at. The +15000 odds offer a huge payout for very little money, so ¯_(ツ)_/¯
Best Director
The narrative here is similar to that of Best Picture. What started as a decently close race has boiled down to two at the top – Mendes and Bong – with a third lagging behind – Tarantino.Maybethere’s a chance the Academy awards Tarantino his long-awaited Director Oscar, but that feels like too much of a fool’s bet.
Mendes’ lead over Bong is bigger here than1917overParasitefor Best Picture, but don’t count out Bong just yet. He’s beloved by the Academy and seemingly everyone agrees his directing work is masterful inParasite.Mendes remains the likely winner, but Bong is worth a small bet.
Ignore Scorsese here, and don’t even think about Phillips. No director in the last 30 years has won the Oscar without a corresponding DGA nomination; Phillips is the only one of the five nominees not to have received one.
The bet:Bong Joon-Ho*
Lead Actress
Zellweger’s BAFTA win seems to cement her as the Oscar winner. But for the sake of argument, let’s see if there still might be some wiggle room.
Scarlett Johansson appears to be the next in line. But she’s also nominated in Supporting Actress. While this indicates wide support, could it result in members splitting their votes for her? This marks the 12th time an actor or actress has received both Lead and Supporting nominations in the same year. So far no one has won both, though 7/11 have won at least one of the two awards. If you think the trend continues, this probably presents a better chance for her to pull an upset than Supporting. Her odds here have also been slowly improving. May ultimately mean nothing, but something worth keeping an eye on.
Erivo is an Oscar win away from completing her EGOT (career Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony wins). It might play a factor, it might not. But if you’re looking for reasons to talk yourself into betting Erivo, this could help. But it should be noted Best Original Song offers a better chance for her to win.
With the four running behind Zellweger all such big long shots, it’s hard to make a strong case for one over the other. Tread carefully here, and it’s probably best to avoid altogether.
The bet:Avoid or Johansson*Once again, in the spirit of transparency, I also placed a small bet on Ronan. I realize I’m all but certainly throwing money away here. But she is my favorite actress and I will bet on her every single time she’s nominated.
Lead Actor
Most of the stats here are pretty meaningless this year. While all four acting categories feel fairly locked in at this point, Phoenix losing this award would be a major shock.
But if you can’t help but make a non-Phoenix bet, Driver would be the man to back. But avoiding this category is the official – and strong – recommendation.
The bet:Avoid*
Supporting Actress
Oscar prognosticators have been fingering this category as one to be on upset alert for. And while the odds agree with that (Dern’s odds are the lowest of the four acting favorites), nothing we’ve seen from the lead-up strongly signals that. But it might be an idea worth entertaining.
Pugh has the people’s support, as she had three acclaimed performances this year (Fighting with my FamilyandMidsommar, in addition toLittle Women). She’s quickly become incredibly popular with the general audience. The question then is whether or not that feeling has found its way into the Academy. The sense is that it’s beginning to, but likely not enough to garner her enough votes for a win.
And let’s briefly circle back to Johansson. If you’re convinced she wins one of her two awards, her odds here actually present decent value. But if you’re on the fence, probably best to stay away.
The bet:Avoid, or Pugh* if you just can’t help yourself, Johansson if you want to take more of a risk.
Supporting Actor
This is Pitt’s award. It may be tempting to bet on Pesci at +900, but don’t fall for that trap. Leave this one alone and just sit back and enjoy watching a Hollywood icon win his first Oscar (acting, at least; he won as a producer for12 Years a Slave).
Also read:2020 Oscar Nominations Announced
Original Screenplay
Parasitehas steadily risen up the ranks, supplantingOnce Upon a Time…in Hollywoodas the favorite leading up to Oscar weekend.Parasitewon the guild award, but with Tarantino being ineligible, it doesn’t necessarily paintParasiteas the clear favorite.Hollywoodwon the Critics’ Choice award, which has historically been more predictive. It didn’t match up last year, but the previous 8 CC winners went on to win the Oscar.
Keep a watch onParasite’sodds. If it stays where it’s at, or moves closer to even, go for it. If it becomes a stronger favorite, you may need to reconsider.Hollywoodstill makes a fine bet, regardless of where its odds finish at.Marriage Storyis still barely in the mix. It had nominations in all four the key pre-cursors, even though it didn’t come away with any wins. But you’re on thin ice if you decide to bet it.
The bet:ParasiteorHollywood*
Adapted Screenplay
Adapted is setting up almost identically to Original. Just replaceParasite, Hollywood, andMarriage StorywithJojo Rabbit,Little Women, andThe Irishman.
And likeParasite,monitorJojo Rabbit’sodds. Right now it’s an acceptable, if not great, bet. But if its odds move higher, best to stay away.
Similar toMarriage Story, The Irishmanhad the four key nominations, but also came away with zero wins.Jojo Rabbitwas only nominated in two of them, though it did win for both.
The bet:Jojo RabbitorLittle Women*
Animated Feature
In what has traditionally been a fairly easy category to predict, Animated Feature may be one of the more unpredictable categories this year. In the previous four years, the eventual Oscar winner has won all four of AA, CC, GG, and PGA. But this year saw three different films win those four awards, withToy Story 4taking home two.
Toy Story 4is the only nominee to receive nominations from each of the six other awards listed above, and as such remains the favorite. But it’s far less of a sure thing now.Klausis the value bet, whileMissing Linkremains an intriguing long shot. Note thatMissing Linkbeat out bothToy Story 4andKlausfor the VES awards for Animated Feature and Animated Character.
EvenI Lost My Bodyisn’t an awful bet, given the unpredictability so far. It also won the Annie for Independent Feature, for good measure.
Toy Story 4is the front-runner, and likely winner. And with all the uncertainty, its odds have lowered significantly. If you’re looking for spots to bet the favorite, this is one of them, but don’t be surprised to see a shake-up on Sunday night.
The bet:Toy Story 4,Klaus*, Missing Link*, I Lost My Body* if you want to take a risk on a long shotThis might be too much exposure, but if any of those three wins, I’ll still come out ahead in this category.
Cinematography
The only thing wrong about Roger Deakins winning his second Oscar is that it will only be his second Oscar.
There’s no bet worth considering here. Easy skip.
Costume Design
The Critics’ Choice Awards have historically been the most predictive for this award, but with this year’s winner not being Oscar-nominated, it muddies the waters a bit. However, neitherJojo RabbitnorJokerwere nominated there. With every Oscar winner having at least been nominated since the Critics’ Choice began awarding for Costumer Design, it might give you some pause in betting on either.
That being said,Jojo Rabbitdid win the coveted guild award, though you see there isn’t traditionally a big correlation between winning there and winning the Oscar. But it’s still a guild award, so it shouldn’t be ignored.
When you factor it all together, bothHollywoodandJojopresent some decent value. At these odds, don’t bother betting onLittle Women. But keep an eye on it. If that number starts to move into the -200 or lower range, maybe consider pulling the trigger.
The bet:Hollywood* orJojo Rabbit*
Documentary Feature
With only one of these documentaries winning any of the big pre-cursors, there isn’t a lot of clarity.American Factoryhas long been in the lead position, butFor Sama’sBAFTA win could shake things up. Without a lot of good insight, this one is probably better left alone.
Film Editing
Editing is loaded with good value.Parasitehas moved into the driver’s seat, replacingFord v. Ferrarias the presumptive favorite. But as far as favorites go, its odds are great. Though that’s mitigated a bit byFordbeing close to even as well. But even still, this is one of the few instances where it makes sense to bet on the favorite.
ButFord v. Ferrariwas the clubhouse leader for a while for a reason. And with its BAFTA win getting it on the board, it’s still very much in the mix to win the Oscar. At its current odds, it makes for a fine bet. And don’t count outThe Irishmanand Thelma Schoonmaker. She’s a legend in the game, and sometimes people want to vote for a legend. And at +550, it offers some nice value.
And keep in mindJojo Rabbit’sACE win for Comedy Film. If you’re looking for a true long shot with a chance, this might be the one, though it’s worth pointing out that it missed on a CC nomination. But even still, bettingJojohere is one of my favorite value bets on the board.
Jokeris really the only nominee you can’t make a case for. Until you consider the fact that it leads the field with 11 nominations. It’s clearly in the 5th spot, but you never know.
The bet:Parasite*(full disclosure: I placed an early bet here, when it was at +700),Ford v. Ferrari,The Irishman,Jojo Rabbit*
International Feature
Parasiteis going to win. Another easy skip.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshellfeels like it’s ready to run away with this one. ButJokerwould be the one to back if you want some action here.
The bet:Avoid orJoker*, maybeJudyif you’re looking for a Hail Mary
Original Score
*Only going back 20 years, as prior to that, category was split into two separate awards for a short stretch
The consensus thought is that this is Hildur Guðnadóttir’s (Joker) to lose. And that is what’s most likely to happen. But1917still has a pulse.
This is Thomas Newman’s 14th nomination for Original Score (plus one nomination for Original Song), but is rocking the big goose egg in the W column. With this being Guðnadóttir’s first nomination, it’s a definite possibility that Thomas Newman gets the “A legend hasn’t won an Oscar yet” treatment. Bet on Thomas Newman here (not Randy, make sure you don’t mix them up), but don’t go overboard.
The bet:Thomas Newman –1917*
Original Song
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” goes into Oscar night as the clear favorite. But as mentioned before, Erivo only needs an Oscar to complete her EGOT. It’s worth keeping in mind, so laying a small bet on Erivo here could have a nice payoff. And at its current odds, it’s an okay value bet even without the EGOT consideration.
The bet:“Stand Up”*
Production Design
Six Production Design Oscar winners in a row have also won at the Critics’ Choice, which points toOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood.The same six Production Design winners have also won an ADG Award. That makes another point forHollywood, but also keepsParasitein the mix.
Hollywood’sodds make for an okay bet, especially if you’re looking for spots to back the favorite. Both1917andParasite(that house though!) make for decent bets.
The bet:Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood,1917orParasiteJojo Rabbitif you’re looking for a “What the hell, let’s swing for the fences” type bet
Sound Editing
The sound categories could be tricky.1917is the favorite in both. Sitting at -300 here, that’s not too enticing. I’d like to see that move down a few points before placing a bet. Or if you use a site that allows parlay bets (Bovada does not), a1917Editing and Mixing parlay could be reasonable even at these odds.
ButFord v. Ferrariis right there as well. It would be no surprise to see that come away with one or both sound awards. Either betFordin both, or don’t bet it in either. Two years in a row, 4/6 years, and 7/10 have seen the same movie win both categories.
The bet:Avoid,1917orFord v. Ferrari*
Sound Mixing
See notes for Sound Editing
Except that1917at -200 here is much more reasonable than -300 in Editing.
The bet:Avoid, 1917, orFord v.Ferrari*
Visual Effects
Here is another category where the betting favorite,1917,has favorable odds.The IrishmanandThe Lion Kingalso present fairly good bets with their odds.Avengers: Endgamefeels like a trap; other thanBlack Pantherlast year, the Academy just does not want to recognize Marvel movies. But it does present a low risk option.
The bet:Anything butStar Wars(including avoiding if you can’t make up your mind)*I betThe Irishman
Major Takeaways
Additionally, two other great resources – both of which I used extensively to help sift through and make sense of all this data – areGold Derbyand Walt Hickey’sblog.
So there we have it. These predictions won’t be perfect, of course. But I have complete trust and faith in the process. With some smart bets, and maybe a little luck along the way, hopefully we can all take some money home on Sunday night.
Matt Hambidge
Film Critic
Articles Published :119
Matt Hambidge is a film critic based in Minneapolis, and is a member of the Minnesota Film Critics Alliance.You can also find him covering SURVIVOR on the Talking Llama podcast.
More from Matt Hambidge
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Sketch Review — A Thoughtful and Creative Examination of Grief
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1917Academy AwardsFord V FerrariJojo RabbitJokerLittle WomenMarriage StoryOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodOscarsParasiteThe Irishman
